Skip to main content

OAN - The Numbers Game

This piece by Simon Coop at NLP very nicely anticipates the publication next week of the 2012-based sub-national household projections (SNHP), which, as Simon states, are expected to demonstrate a lower level of future household change when compared to previous projections.
 
Given that the SNHP will project forward the demographic and household formation trends that were experienced between 2007 and 2012, this lower level of change should not surprise anybody, and Simon's piece makes the point that they should not be taken at face value.
 
In planning terms, the SNHP do not provide a definitive position in relation to future housing need, and the national PPG requires DCLG household projections to provide only the starting point for the assessment of housing need.
 
This is election season though and, whilst Simon makes the point that a lower level of change in the SNHP might 'threaten the abilities' of pro-development politicians to make good on a commitment to increase the supply of housing, I would be more concerned about anti-development politicians making the SNHP both the starting point and the finishing point for the assessment of housing need. 
 
Increasing the supply of housing is an easier thing for an MP on a national platform to commit to than a councillor on a local platform. Given that it is at the local level now where objective assessments of need are defined it is here where the numbers game is played out and I would wage that there will be more politicians pleased for an opportunity to keep a local plan in the long grass than there are politicians worried about their committment to increase supply.
 
In fact, the reaction to the SNHP will be a good test of the reality that lies behind political rhetoric. If you hear a politician, of any colour and at any level, acknowledge that that SNHP should not be taken at face value and are, in any event, just a starting point, then you will know that they a) understand the planning process and b) are comfortable with the idea of new homes being built in their area. If you hear a politician say that the SNHP mean that the LPA in their local area should take the opportunity to revise housebuilding targets downwards then you will know what they really think...

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Planning Reform Week

The first bit On the day that I started writing this the Prime Minister has confirmed in a move considered intellectually incoherent by some that hundreds of new oil and gas licenses will be granted in the UK, which signals that it is ‘Energy Week’ on the Government’s summer recess comms grid. A line appears to have been drawn from the role of an Ultra Low Emission Zone policy in securing a marginal win for the Conservatives in the Uxbridge & South Ruislip by-election to the softening of commitments to a net zero energy strategy. Seven days ago the Prime Minister launched the grid’s ‘Planning Reform Week’ by announcing that the Government will meet its manifesto commitment to build 1 million homes over this parliament, which would represent “another important milestone in the government’s already successful housebuilding strategy”. It is notable given the ground that Labour has gained on housing in recent months that the first week of the parliamentary recess was devoted to tryin
1 comment
Read more

Life on the Front Line

I like it when people get in touch with me to suggest topics for 50 Shades of Planning Podcast episodes because, firstly, it means that people are listening to it and also, and most importantly, it means I do not have to come up with ideas myself. I found this message from a team leader at a local authority striking and sobering though. In a subsequent conversation the person that sent this confided in me that their team is virtually in crisis mode. It is probably fair to say that the planning system is in crisis, but then it is also probably fair to say that the planning system is always in crisis… There is, of course, the issue of resources. Whilst according to a Planning magazine survey slightly more LPAs are predicting growth in planning department budgets (25%) rather than a contraction (22%), this has to be seen in the context of a 38% real-terms fall in net current expenditure on planning functions between 2010–11 and 2017–18. Beyond resources though the current crisis feels m
42 comments
Read more

Life on the Front Line II

It was about a year ago that Catriona Riddell first wrote in Planning magazine about low morale in local planning authorities, which Catriona, Peter Geraghty, Paul Brocklehurst and I followed up with the 'Life on the Front Line' 50 Shades podcast episode ( no. 60 ). 'Life on the Front Line' was informed by a 'Call for Evidence', the submissions to which, mostly anonymised, are reproduced on the Life on the Front Line 50 Shades blog post. Catriona has again used her Planning magazine column to raise the issue of morale in LPAs, making the point that, one year on, it does not feel like things have improved much. Many of the factors impacting on morale have been well documented, Catriona writes, but whilst there seems to be some general agreement around the causes, little has been offered in the way of solutions. As Catriona writes, too many authorities are actively discouraging a return to the office, which is not healthy; not conducive to team working; and is un
1 comment
Read more